Joel is a longtime friend who’s previously been on Papa’s Basement a bunch, where his every appearance would wind up with him talking NFL gambling lines. So we decided a better home for him would be the Papa’s Football Podcast site, where he could do exactly that in peace. Enjoy.
It’s only a gambling problem if you’re losing.
Before I review Week 2 and dive into Week 3 lines, I suppose I should briefly introduce myself. If you’re one of the many tens of people reading this, you’re probably just like me – a recreational degenerate. Working a 9 to 5 combined with life’s obligations prevents me from spending as much time as I’d like on capping games. Not that it’s going to stop me from betting each week.
Everyone has their own betting style and beliefs. Some gamblers are spot bettors, only betting a few select games where they feel they have a huge edge. Others are volume bettors who make a lot of plays. Personally, I don’t label myself as either. Some weeks I see a lot of value on the board, others I see little to none. I tend to make more plays early in the NFL season before lines get too tight. I also selectively live bet games whenever I have a solid opportunity to profit. The bottom line is that if I see an opportunity to profit, I bet.
For the purposes of this article, I’m only going to post pregame sides and totals. I’ll keep track of my win/loss record each week. I’m not a flat bettor which means I raise/lower my bets based on my confidence. This means I can have losing weeks with a winning record or winning weeks with a losing record. Also, lines change constantly so the spread, total, or juice may be different by the time I write this. If you’re interested in my two cents throughout the week, tweet me @The_Tonian.
In terms of sides and totals, Week 2 was a very even week. Dogs went 9-7 ATS with 4 outright wins. Over/unders went 8-8 for the second consecutive week. A few teams have performed above expectations early, notably the Dolphins who have won outright on the road two weeks in a row as an underdog. On the flip side, bettors who have taken the Patriots as double digit favorites have been burned two weeks in a row. As for this week’s card, I may potentially add a play or two before Sunday but that will depend on whether the lines move and present an opportunity. Here’s my breakdown:
1. Chiefs at Eagles: I’m high on the Chiefs this year. However, coming off a short week, I’m not sure the Chiefs will be prepared physically for the breakneck speed of the Eagles offense. I normally look to bet Thursday night unders but I can’t do it against the Eagles just yet.
Pick: Eagles -3; avoid at -3.5.
2. Cardinals at Saints: You’ll have to pay extra to get -7 right now but I still like the Saints -7.5 at home. I’m low on the Cardinals already and Larry Fitzgerald may play hurt? I’m going to join the squares on this one.
Pick: Saints -7.5.
3. Giants at Panthers: I figure the mushes will be all over the Giants as a small underdog. There’s no way the Giants will start 0-3, right? RIGHT? I’m tempted to fade the public but I haven’t been impressed with the Panthers new offense. The Panthers secondary is severely banged up too. The only play I see here is the over.
Pick: Over 45.5.
4. Rams at Cowboys: There’s value in the Rams at +4 but not enough for me to fire. I think this game could be a track meet. The Rams weakness is their secondary while their strength is their passing game.
Pick: Over 47.
5. Lions at Redskins: I lean Redskins -1.5 but there’s no way I can pull the trigger here. This line may move to the other side, making it tempting to grab Lions +1.5 and seeing where the Redskins end up as a dog. No play for me on the total either.
6. Browns at Vikings: The gambling world is breathlessly waiting to find out whether Brandon Weeden will play. No play for me on the spread or total.
7. Bucs at Patriots: Lean Bucs at +7.5 or higher. If Gronkowski plays, this may go up (ditto the total). Even if he doesn’t, the mushes love the Patriots almost every week. Both offenses have been out of sync but the opening number of 46.5 is down to 44/44.5 already.
Pick: Under 46.5.
8. Texans at Ravens: The Texans are lucky to be 2-0. The Ravens are undervalued due to the last two underwhelming performances.
Pick: Ravens +2.5.
9. Chargers at Titans: The Chargers lost arguably their best receiver, Malcom Floyd, to a concussion. I’m a believer in the Titans defense.
Pick: Titans -3.
10. Packers at Bengals: Green Bay was a small underdog in look-ahead lines, now they’re a 2.5 point favorite. Lean under but I’m going to wait and see if this gets bet up. No play for now.
11. Falcons at Dolphins: I grabbed over 43 early due to the Falcons beat up defense. Steven Jackson’s out and that will make the Falcons air it out as well. I’m buying the Dolphins hot start as well.
Picks: Dolphins -1.5/2 and over 43.
12. Bills at Jets: No plays or leans on this sh*tshow matchup.
13. Colts at 49ers: No plays of leans.
14. Jaguars at Seahawks: If you’re stupid enough to bet a 20 point favorite, quit gambling. Now.
15. Bears at Steelers: This could be a 3 point spread. I’m not touching the Steelers even at +3. No plays.
16. Raiders at Broncos: How in the hell did the Raiders get a single primetime game?
3-team parlay of the week: Titans -3, Ravens +2.5, Dolphins -1.5