For more talk of Week 6 NFL lines, tweet me @The_Tonian.
Overreaction can be a gambler’s best friend. When a team gets upset or plays at an unexpected level it can lead to lines the following week that present great value. The average bettor often fails to see this, as they simply focus on betting teams. Meanwhile, sharps react accordingly by not caring about teams and only betting numbers with value.
Looking at the lines for Week 6, I see several numbers that are inflated due to recent perception. Here’s my breakdown of plays. As always, these numbers may already be gone and are subject to move before and after the column posts: This is why it’s an early look at Week 6 NFL lines.
1. Giants at Bears: After two consecutive weeks of backing the Giants and losing, I’m hesitant to do it three weeks in a row. Despite this, I’m tempted to grab +7.5, especially since injuries have plagued the Bears defense. The over is also tempting but I think 47 is a good number and there’s no edge here.
2. Packers at Ravens: Some books have this one at 2.5, others at 3 with juice. I’m debating on making a play on Packers -2.5 with the hope that I can get Ravens +3.5 and hope the final score lands on a three point differential. I’m not fully buying the Ravens coming off a road win as an underdog but I don’t like betting against them at home.
3. Eagles at Bucs: This is a horrible spot for the Eagles with a home game looming versus the Cowboys. The Bucs are a dumpster fire but they’re a dumpster fire coming off a bye. I believe in the Bucs defense and I have them winning outright. I expect this will hit 3 by kickoff but for the purposes of this column I’ll use the best current number (it’s lower at most books).
Picks: Bucs +2 and Under 45.5.
4. Steelers at Jets: The Jets upset of the Falcons last week made this a great spot to take the Steelers. This opened at a pick’em and got bet up to 2.5. It’s an awful spot for the Jets with a huge game looming versus the Patriots. They’ll overlook the Steelers who are coming off a bye.
Pick: Steelers +2.5.
5. Panthers at Vikings: As I mentioned last week, the Panthers are hard to back when they’re on the road. Lean Vikings but passing.
6. Raiders at Chiefs: Opened at 10.5 and I wish I had taken the Raiders at that number. The line is currently 8, depending on the book. This will be an ugly, low scoring game.
Pick: Under 42.
7. Rams at Texans: Lean Rams +7.5 but I can’t play them on the road.
8. Bengals at Bills: I wanted to bet the Bills this week but EJ Manuel got hurt. I have no idea what to expect from Thad Lewis, who was signed off the practice squad. The total was already bet down so there’s no strong edge there, although I do lean under at 42.
9. Lions at Browns: Just like the Bills, I wanted to bet the Browns but Brian Hoyer tore his ACL.
10. Titans at Seahawks: Expect the Titans defense to keep this game close and ugly up this game.
Picks: Titans +14 and Under 41.
11. Jaguars at Broncos: The only reason to bet this game is so you can say you made a bet on a NFL game with the highest point spread in history.
12. Saints at Patriots: I was wrong about the Saints being “free money” for squares last week. However, the Patriots get back Gronkowski which will open up the running and passing game.
Picks: Patriots -2.5 and Under 51.
13. Cardinals at 49ers: Similar to the Titans, this is another “hold your nose” play. The Cardinals defense is for real and I expect this to be a close game.
Picks: Cardinals +11 and Under 42.5.
14. Redskins at Cowboys: The Cowboys near upset of the Broncos has pushed the spread to 6. This is way too high, even with the Redskins struggles.
Pick: Redskins +6.
15. Colts at Chargers: At -1.5, this looks like free money on the Colts. However, it’s an awful spot with the Broncos on deck in Week 8. I’m targeting the Chargers +3 but I’ll use the current line for the column. Pick: Chargers +1.5.
3-team parlay of the week: Steelers +2.5, Cardinals +11, Redskins +6 (Season Record: 1-2).
Week 5 Sides: 3-5; Week 5 Totals: 0-2
Season Sides: 9-8-1; Season Totals: 4-6
Combined Overall Record: 13-14-1