Monthly Archives: September 2013

Power Rankings NFL Week 5

With a month of football under our belt, Peyton’s on pace for 5,880 regular season passing yards. Eli and Big Ben are both about to lose out on Hall-of-Fame shrines. And Tim Tebow has cast a swamp curse on Blaine Gabbert and Jacksonville’s hapless franchise. How does ‘London Jaguars’ look and sound to you? I smell the easiest sponsorship money the NFL has ever made #BigPimpin #InAnFTypeV8

Think of our Contender Rankings as the half-breed love-child of traditional “Power Rankings” and the NFL playoff format: from Best to Worst, we rank the 8 divisional leaders and our two favorite wild card teams from each conference. Our Top 12 rankings give you all the fun of a college poll AND a meaningful outlook on the NFL playoff picture!

    Top 4: Bye-week bound Divisional Leaders

1. Denver Broncos. (4-0). The Broncos are best in the AFC West. They could beat the Chiefs three times this season (if necessary). Just ask the Eagles who kicked Chip Kelly’s ass harder these past two weeks: Andy Reid or Peyton Manning?

2. Seattle Seahawks. (4-0). The Seahawks looked vulnerable for the first 52 minutes of this game. But a late game collapse by Houston let Seattle back in the game. Let’s see how they fare against the Colts’ stingy defense in Week 5: Indy gave up fewer than 13 points/game in September.

3. New Orleans Saints. (4-0). Monday night matchup on December 2: NO at SEA. We will see if Seattle can hang with the Saints’ high-octane offense late in the season.

4. New England Patriots. (4-0). Despite Tom Brady looking like Tony Romo on a 4th quarter fumble, the Patriots earned a tough road win this week against Atlanta. BTW LaGarrette Blunt– excuse me, Blount– could be the best ball carrier to play behind Brady since Corey Dillon took the rock for 1600+ yards in 2004. Yes, Blount could be the difference maker on a cold January night in Denver.

    Best of the Rest: NFL Contender Rankings 5-12

5. Kansas City Chiefs. (4-0). The Chiefs might not even beat the Redskins in December. Don’t expect this team to finish better than 11-5.

6. Detroit Lions. (3-1). If the Lions can win at Green Bay this week, Detroit will gain a huge advantage in the NFC North. Bears and Packers fans needn’t worry though– the Lions are perfectly capable of blowing it (as usual). That said, we still think this Detroit team is different: they’re one of the few NFC teams with enough talent to match the Saints’ offense, and/or to outflank the Seahawks’ defense.

7. Indianapolis Colts. (3-1). The Colts took clear lead of the AFC South this week, primarily because of a regrettable injury to Titans’ QB Jake Locker (out 4-6 weeks, according to ESPN). While Tennessee took second place in the AFC South, Houston plunged to third in the division, thanks to Matt Schaub throwing another interception returned for a touchdown– his third such negative scoring drive in September. It wasn’t all bad in Houston last week– Texans’ fans can take solace in the resurgence of RB Arian Foster during the loss to Seattle. Foster’s 171 yards from scrimmage put Houston’s starting RB back on the radar as one of the top dual threats in the NFL.

8. Chicago Bears. (3-1). Chicago has already circled November 10 on the calendar: their rematch with Detroit in Week 10 is a MUST-WIN. You know, it’s a must-win game if Chicago wants to control its own destiny in the event of a two-way tie atop the NFC North… jk! The NFC sucks, so both the Bears and Lions seem destined for Wild Card Sunday. Let’s see if Green Bay (or even Minnesota) can snatch that second Wild Card spot in the NFC.

9. Miami Dolphins. (3-1). Mike Sherman isn’t your father’s Bill Callahan. But he’s pretty close. We won’t pay much attention to this team unless it beats New England during the regular season.

10. Carolina Panthers. (1-2). The last Wild Card spot in the NFC is very much up for grabs. We didn’t find the 49ers’ victory over a woeful Rams’ team convincing enough to move San Fran ahead of Carolina, who were on bye last week. We’re already looking to the November 10 matchup at Candlestick Park between the Panthers and the 49ers: this game will greatly impact the NFC Wild Card race.

11. Baltimore Ravens. (2-2). This week’s headline: Rookie QB defeats reigning Super Bowl MVP. E.J. Manuel outplayed Joe Cool in Buffalo on Sunday, while the Ravens’ play-callers inexplicably forgot to run the ball for their first 25 offensive plays in the second half. Does anyone in Baltimore remember how to run the playaction pass? On a related note, Norv Turner just turned a third string QB into someone capable of scoring against Marvin Lewis’ defense. Don’t be shocked if Cleveland seizes first place in the division next week.

12. Dallas Cowboys. (2-2). Football’s worst division is only gonna get worse in Week 5. Peyton Manning expects to stomp Monte Kiffin’s son in the testicles, just like Mike Tyson once did. Did I say Tyson? I meant Arizona State.

PFPod’s NFL Contender Rankings: Week 4

Heading into Week 4, the NFL is down to seven undefeated teams. Another seven teams are tied for sixth place in the NFC, despite their losing records. Looks like the NFC East isn’t alone in its mediocrity– more than half the Conference is committed to finish September in an underwhelming fashion. Here’s to hoping for better quality games in October! September looked a little too much like extended preseason for a few playoff teams from last postseason (not naming names, but you know who we talkin’ bout…).

Think of our Contender Rankings as the half-breed love-child of traditional “Power Rankings” and the NFL playoff format: from Best to Worst, we rank the 8 divisional leaders and our two favorite wild card teams from each conference. Our Top 12 rankings give you all the fun of a college poll AND a meaningful outlook on the NFL playoff picture! Yes, football fans, you can have your cake and eat it too. At least until you bitch about us dissing your team.

Top 4: Bye-week bound Divisional Leaders

1. Denver Broncos. Let’s see if Chip Kelly’s high speed system can keep pace with Peyton’s no huddle offense in their Week 4 matchup. Probably not. Until Kelly’s system beats one of Cam Newton’s teams, we’re gonna question its championship potential.

2. Seattle Seahawks. The creme de la NFC has an intriguing game against the Texans this week. Can the Texans (or anyone else) figure out how to score more than 20 points on Seattle’s defense?

3. New Orleans Saints. The Saints are on a mission. They will settle for nothing less than a Super Bowl trophy ceremony between Jonathan Vilma and Roger Goodell. In the Octagon.

4. New England Patriots. The Pats’ air attack should only get better from here.

Best of the Rest: NFL Contender Rankings 5-12

5.Chicago Bears. The Bears haven’t played a perfect game yet, but Chicago still has a perfect record. Intradivisional rivals Detroit will say a lot about say about that this Week.

6. Miami Dolphins. Stats from MIA’s win over ATL do not show a sustainable style of offense. That said, their two early road wins and this upset against a Steven Jackson-less Falcons’ squad could give this Dolphins’ team the cushion it needs to limp into a wild card berth.

7. Kansas City Chiefs. Wake us up when they play Denver in Week 11. Then we’ll talk about KC’s championship prospects.

8. Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens beatdown the Texans last week, but an ugly first half performance on offense was quickly erased by two vintage Ravens’ touchdown returns from special teams and their middle linebacker. To Flacco’s credit, his ball control offense worked effectively to keep the ball out of Houston’s hands in the second half. But make no mistake: this team needs Ray Rice healthy. (Editor’s note: Apologies to Cincy fans for breaking this tie in favor of Baltimore. The Bengals have looked consistently better than the Ravens so far this young season. Nevertheless, Ohio’s Other Lovable Losers will have to beat the defending Champs head-to-head if they want to grab PFPod’s AFC North Tiebreaker of the Month).

9. Houston Texans. Yes, Houston, you have two salary cap problems. The guaranteed money owed to Schaub and Foster over the next three seasons could cripple this franchise. Meanwhile, Indy and Tennessee look ready to eclipse the defending divisional champs. Kudos to Jake Locker for leading a game-winning last minute TD drive last week. Let’s hope your Week 1 performance against Pittsburgh was the fluke. Also, we think the national media outlets overhyped the Richardson trade . Yes, the Colts gained a serious goal line threat, but Willis McGahee will average more yards per rush this season than Richardson ever did in a Browns uniform. In other words, 3.6 yards per carry.

10. Dallas Cowboys. The NFC East leaders are looking better than any NFC wild card wannabes. For now.

11. Detroit Lions. Even if you don’t believe in Detroit, the Lions are one of only five NFC teams with a winning record. But don’t doubt this team’s ability to win during the playoffs– if Matthew Stafford can make it through the season, this team could make it way to the NFC Championship Game.

12. Carolina Panthers. Yeah, they looked extremely disappointing in Weeks 1 and 2. But every other 1-2 team in the NFC lost this week. And yes, we really do think the Panthers’ 38-0 win against the Giants could be a turning point for their season. That said, we’d be stunned if Carolina finished better than 9-7.

Dropped from rankings: Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers
New to Top 12: Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers

Joel’s Early Look at NFL Lines–Week 4

NOTE: If you’re interested in my two cents on NFL lines throughout the week, tweet me @The_Tonian.

From a casual fan’s perspective, Monday Night Football’s Week 3 Raiders/Broncos matchup was a bore. Peyton Manning lit up the hopeless Raiders secondary and the game was never in doubt. What was in doubt, however, was just how much the Broncos would win by. The Broncos opened as a -14.5 point favorite, went as low as -14, and were bet up to -16.5 (-17 at some books) by kickoff. In the 4th quarter, the Broncos were “clinging” to a 23 point lead. Unless you had money on the game or fantasy football interests, you had zero reason to watch anymore.

For gamblers, however, there was still plenty of reason to watch. The Raiders turned the ball over on downs after multiple shots to score a “meaningless” touchdown from inside the Broncos red zone. Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense went into clock killing mode. From the looks of it, Broncos bettors and 2nd half under bettors were going to hold on. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your point of view), Montee Ball fumbled the ball back to the Raiders. The Raiders went on to score another touchdown. Bettors who had Raiders +16.5 or +17 got to celebrate. Those who backed the Broncos at -14 to -15.5 were still holding winning tickets. I personally got to celebrate getting lucky on my 2nd half Over 23.5 bet (there were 24 points scored in the 2nd half thanks to that late Raiders touchdown).

This poor schlub, not so much.

For what it’s worth, sportsbooks were not celebrating that Raiders touchdown, either.

Half the battle in sports betting is getting the best number. Sometimes it’s the opening number when it’s released. Other times it’s in the middle of the week after it’s moved some. Occasionally it’s best to wait until just before kickoff if you’re waiting on a number. It’s critical to learn how to read the market and know when to bet. This is a skill that takes time to master. Even professional gamblers can misread the sports betting market. However, they have enough experience and savvy to either not force a bet or to find a live betting opportunity should one present itself.

Recreational bettors often lack these skills. Many bettors only bet on the day of the games and end up with stale numbers or heavily juiced ones. Sometimes you can get away with getting a bad number. My early play on the Saints -7.5 last week was a prime example of this as I could have easily gotten -6.5 or -7. I misjudged the betting market as I didn’t think I would have an opportunity to get the Saints lower than -7.5.

In my opinion, the card for Week 4 presents less opportunity for early plays in comparison to Week 3. There are a few sides and totals I will keep an eye on. Here’s my breakdown. As always, these numbers may already be gone and are subject to move after posting.

1. 49ers at Rams: I remember my initial feeling of excitement when Thursday Night Football became an every week occurrence. Instead, we as fans are subject to a crappy product with players who are (understandably) still physically exhausted from their previous game. Like that awful Raiders/Broncos game, gambling and fantasy football is my only motivation to watch.
Pick: Under 43.

2. Steelers at Vikings: Oh, the game is in LONDON? YOU DON’T SAY! I still don’t give a shit. Anyways, the total went from 39 to 42 within minutes after it opened. The Steelers are now small favorites after opening as a small underdog. I’m curious to see if the public mushes the Steelers after their 2nd half “rally” and seeing the Vikings lose at home to the Browns. I see nothing to like here right now.
No plays.

3. Seahawks at Texans: I follow a number of sharp sports bettors on Twitter and they LOVE the Texans catching 3 points. While I see where they’re coming from, I’m still debating on whether to back the Texans who may be missing Andre Johnson.
No plays.

4. Giants at Chiefs: I grabbed a look ahead line of Giants +4 but this opened at 6 and got pounded down to 4. After staying away last week, I’m going to join the suckers who think that the Giants can’t be this bad. Pick: Giants +4

5. The Bills secondary is still depleted and the Ravens aren’t quite the same team away from home. Bills win this outright.
Picks: Bills +3.5 and Over 43.5.

6. Bengals at Browns: I’m on board the Brian Hoyer bandwagon. I got +5 early but would take it at +4 or better.
Pick: Browns +5.

7. Cardinals at Bucs: The Bucs outplayed the Patriots for most of the first half and still couldn’t score. Josh Freeman is close to being benched. The Cardinals are still awful. I don’t trust either with a 3 point spread.
No plays.

8. Bears at Lions: After beating the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, I imagine the public will be on the Bears. If they’re getting 3, I don’t blame them. The line (at most books) is at 2.5 right now but I’m not sure it will hit 3 (without being juiced). I lean Lions if giving 2 or less. This will be a shootout.
Pick: Over 47.5.

9. Colts at Jaguars: Huge letdown spot for the Colts. I’m eyeing the Jaguars and the under (currently at 43) but will hold off for now.
No plays.

10. Jets at Titans: While I buy the Jets defense, I don’t buy their offense on the road. This opened at 5 and has been bet down to 3.5. I lean Titans if you can get -3 and I’m eyeing the under (currently at 39).
No plays.

11. Cowboys at Chargers: I’m kicking myself for not backing the Cowboys last week in what was a bad spot for the Rams (game before huge matchup versus the 49ers). I prefer to back the Cowboys as underdogs, although I did have them in Week 1 as a home favorite. But I have no faith in the Cowboys as a road favorite. Additionally, I lack faith in the Chargers. However, they’ve performed very well in the first half. At the time of this post, the 1H spreads haven’t been released but I’ll take a stab at what I anticipate will be Chargers pk or possible +0.5.
Pick: Chargers 1H.

12. Redskins at Raiders: Last week the Redskins resembled something similar to a NFL team for the first time all season. But I’m not laying 3 points here.
No plays.

13. Eagles at Broncos: I lean Eagles at +10.5 but I’m sure there will be a live spot available to get a better number. I have no interest in touching the total which is at 57 already.
No plays.

14. Patriots at Falcons: Interesting line movement on this game already. It opened at pick’em, moved to Falcons -1, flipped to Patriots -1.5, and is now currently Falcons -1.5. Several Twitter sharps I follow like the Falcons. However, I’m low on them. The Falcons defense is beat up, Roddy White is a shell of himself with a high ankle sprain, and the Falcons offensive line is a sieve. The Patriots have some injury problems of their own but they may be getting Rob Gronkowski back, which is huge for both their running game and passing game. I have no idea where this spread will end up. While I like the Patriots, I think this is another game where I can wait to bet it live.
No plays.

15. Dolphins at Saints: At some point the Saints are going to be huge favorites when they play at home. The books only have this one at 6, partially due to Miami’s 3-0 start. Going to ride with the squares on this one.
Picks: Saints -6 and Over 47.

3-team parlay of the week: Giants +4, Browns +5, Saints -6

Week 3 Sides: 3-1-1; Week 3 Totals: 2-2

Season Overall Record: 5-3-1

Papa’s Football Podcast–Week 4

Why it seems like just seven days ago you were listening to the Week 3 episode of Papa’s Football Podcast. Strange how that works. This time around we discuss where the San Francisco 49ers currently fall on a scale of 1-effed, how sweet it must have been for Andy Reed to mount and inseminate Chip Kelly upon his return to Philadelphia, the Steelers’ woes and why the British somehow manage to never get a good game to watch at Wembley.


Click here to listen to this episode of Papa’s Football Podcast or use hit the “play” button below. And click here to open us in iTunes, where you can subscribe to the podcast and never miss an episode as well as rate and comment on the show.

PFPod’s NFL Contender Rankings: Week 3

With two weeks of football under our belts, PFPod.com can now debut its first Contender Rankings of 2013. Think of our Contender Rankings as the half-breed love-child of traditional “Power Rankings” and the NFL playoff format: from Best to Worst, we rank the 8 divisional leaders and our two favorite wild card teams from each conference. Our Top 12 rankings give you all the fun of a college poll AND a meaningful outlook on the NFL playoff picture! Yes, football fans, you can have your cake and eat it too. At least until you bitch about us dissing your team’s crappy division.

Top 4: Bye-week bound Divisional Leaders

1. Denver Broncos. Peyton Manning has been the best offensive player in the league so far. And we’re still waiting for him to show up in the first half of a game! Broncos fans should Thank Eli for hosting big brother in NYC last weekend–Manning Bowl III might have been Denver’s walk-through for this year’s Super Bowl at the new Giants’ Stadium.

2. Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks’ bludgeoning of the defending NFC Champs in Week 2 signals a big problem for the rest of the conference: if Seattle gains home field advantage during the playoffs, there may not be a team capable of derailing their Super Bowl aspirations.

3. Houston Texans. Houston has not looked like the team it did a year ago, but they’re 2-0, and they have a shot to take down the defending champs in Baltimore this week. Look for Ed Reed to inflict a little bit of regret on his former franchise.

4.New Orleans Saints. Last week’s razor thin margin of victory against a mediocre Tampa Bay squad shouldn’t worry Saints’ fans–bizarre lightning delays are as good an excuse as a road team can get for a less than satisfying performance. Look for N’awlins to bounce back with a better game this week.

Best of the Rest: NFL Contender Rankings 5-12

5. New England. Before the season started, the Pats had a clear path to a playoff bye. This perennial powerhouse looked hungry for redemption before the dust had even settled from their season-ending loss in the AFC Championship game. But New England’s offense had the worst off-season in NFL history: Belicheck’s innovative strategy to create coverage mismatches for his top-shelf tight ends has unexpectedly disappeared. With Gronk sidelined day-to-day, and Hernandez for 25 to life, Tom Brady has been relegated to an extended preseason with a relatively fresh receiving corps. Where’s Wes Welker when you need him, New England?

6. Chicago. The Bears have not looked convincing in their two come-from-behind wins, but they are one of only three undefeated teams remaining in the NFC. As the season progresses, however, we would not be surprised if Green Bay, Detroit, and/or Minnesota finished ahead of them in the division. BTW, it is a travesty that the NFC East will get a team into the playoffs ahead of, well, anyone in the NFC North.

7. Miami. Ryan Tannehill’s surprising KO of Andrew Luck’s hapless Colts has kept the Dolphins undefeated. It seems unlikely that the Fins’ record will stay unblemished this week, though–a date with the Falcons should diminish Miami’s hope for a playoff berth.

8. Atlanta. The best 1-1 team in the NFL has to be the Falcons. Their Week 1 loss to the Saints was nothing more than a great advertisement for the divisional rematch in November. Atlanta’s victory over the Rams was a little disconcerting, however; a game that had looked like a blowout in the making nearly slipped from the Falcons late in the fourth quarter. This Atlanta team had better figure out how to finish strong–Falcons’ fans are getting tired of watching Mike Smith’s team falling flat on its face during the playoffs.

9. Kansas City. Chiefs fans might be a little miffed that we placed their undefeated team behind the one-loss Falcons, but let’s all be real here: your win against Jacksonville does not compare to their narrow defeat at New Orleans. That said, a victory against the high-flying Eagles would do a lot to catapult KC in our view.

10. Baltimore. The defending champs have not looked good in its first two games. The defense is still trying to form its identity in its first season EVER without Ray Lewis, and the offense is hoping that Joe Flacco can adapt to life without Anquan Boldin. For now, the Raven’s best chance at a repeat begins with their crummy divisional opponents. Cincinnati has looked strong enough to win the division, but the only thing the Steelers and Browns are gonna win this year are high draft picks for 2014.

11. Green Bay. Sure, it’s hard to say that Green Bay is better than the 49ers team that beat them in Week 1. But San Francisco won’t regain Contender status until they bounce back from the beatdown they took in Seattle on Sunday night. In the meantime, the Packers have looked solid in both games. Their dominating first half against Washington may be a sign that this team has figured out their formula for balancing Aaron Rodgers’ passing attack with an effective running game.

12. Dallas. Congratulations to the Dallas Cowboys for having the least unimpressive team in football’s sh*ttiest division. Sure, the Eagles are right there with the ‘Boys in the middle-third of NFL teams; but for now, we’re gonna bank on Monte Kiffin’s defense taking Dallas into December. Philadelphia is flying high on Chip Kelly’s offense for the moment, but even he doesn’t know if any football player can keep this pace up for more than 13 games a season.

Joel’s Early Look at NFL Gambling Lines For Week 3

Joel is a longtime friend who’s previously been on Papa’s Basement a bunch, where his every appearance would wind up with him talking NFL gambling lines. So we decided a better home for him would be the Papa’s Football Podcast site, where he could do exactly that in peace. Enjoy.

It’s only a gambling problem if you’re losing.

Before I review Week 2 and dive into Week 3 lines, I suppose I should briefly introduce myself. If you’re one of the many tens of people reading this, you’re probably just like me – a recreational degenerate. Working a 9 to 5 combined with life’s obligations prevents me from spending as much time as I’d like on capping games. Not that it’s going to stop me from betting each week.

Everyone has their own betting style and beliefs. Some gamblers are spot bettors, only betting a few select games where they feel they have a huge edge. Others are volume bettors who make a lot of plays. Personally, I don’t label myself as either. Some weeks I see a lot of value on the board, others I see little to none. I tend to make more plays early in the NFL season before lines get too tight. I also selectively live bet games whenever I have a solid opportunity to profit. The bottom line is that if I see an opportunity to profit, I bet.

For the purposes of this article, I’m only going to post pregame sides and totals. I’ll keep track of my win/loss record each week. I’m not a flat bettor which means I raise/lower my bets based on my confidence. This means I can have losing weeks with a winning record or winning weeks with a losing record. Also, lines change constantly so the spread, total, or juice may be different by the time I write this. If you’re interested in my two cents throughout the week, tweet me @The_Tonian.

In terms of sides and totals, Week 2 was a very even week. Dogs went 9-7 ATS with 4 outright wins. Over/unders went 8-8 for the second consecutive week. A few teams have performed above expectations early, notably the Dolphins who have won outright on the road two weeks in a row as an underdog. On the flip side, bettors who have taken the Patriots as double digit favorites have been burned two weeks in a row. As for this week’s card, I may potentially add a play or two before Sunday but that will depend on whether the lines move and present an opportunity. Here’s my breakdown:

1. Chiefs at Eagles: I’m high on the Chiefs this year. However, coming off a short week, I’m not sure the Chiefs will be prepared physically for the breakneck speed of the Eagles offense. I normally look to bet Thursday night unders but I can’t do it against the Eagles just yet.

Pick: Eagles -3; avoid at -3.5.

2. Cardinals at Saints: You’ll have to pay extra to get -7 right now but I still like the Saints -7.5 at home. I’m low on the Cardinals already and Larry Fitzgerald may play hurt? I’m going to join the squares on this one.

Pick: Saints -7.5.

3. Giants at Panthers: I figure the mushes will be all over the Giants as a small underdog. There’s no way the Giants will start 0-3, right? RIGHT? I’m tempted to fade the public but I haven’t been impressed with the Panthers new offense. The Panthers secondary is severely banged up too. The only play I see here is the over.

Pick: Over 45.5.

4. Rams at Cowboys: There’s value in the Rams at +4 but not enough for me to fire. I think this game could be a track meet. The Rams weakness is their secondary while their strength is their passing game.

Pick: Over 47.

5. Lions at Redskins: I lean Redskins -1.5 but there’s no way I can pull the trigger here. This line may move to the other side, making it tempting to grab Lions +1.5 and seeing where the Redskins end up as a dog. No play for me on the total either.

6. Browns at Vikings: The gambling world is breathlessly waiting to find out whether Brandon Weeden will play. No play for me on the spread or total.

7. Bucs at Patriots: Lean Bucs at +7.5 or higher. If Gronkowski plays, this may go up (ditto the total). Even if he doesn’t, the mushes love the Patriots almost every week. Both offenses have been out of sync but the opening number of 46.5 is down to 44/44.5 already.

Pick: Under 46.5.

8. Texans at Ravens: The Texans are lucky to be 2-0. The Ravens are undervalued due to the last two underwhelming performances.

Pick: Ravens +2.5.

9. Chargers at Titans: The Chargers lost arguably their best receiver, Malcom Floyd, to a concussion. I’m a believer in the Titans defense.

Pick: Titans -3.

10. Packers at Bengals: Green Bay was a small underdog in look-ahead lines, now they’re a 2.5 point favorite. Lean under but I’m going to wait and see if this gets bet up. No play for now.

11. Falcons at Dolphins: I grabbed over 43 early due to the Falcons beat up defense. Steven Jackson’s out and that will make the Falcons air it out as well. I’m buying the Dolphins hot start as well.

Picks: Dolphins -1.5/2 and over 43.

12. Bills at Jets: No plays or leans on this sh*tshow matchup.

13. Colts at 49ers: No plays of leans.

14. Jaguars at Seahawks: If you’re stupid enough to bet a 20 point favorite, quit gambling. Now.

15. Bears at Steelers: This could be a 3 point spread. I’m not touching the Steelers even at +3. No plays.

16. Raiders at Broncos: How in the hell did the Raiders get a single primetime game?

3-team parlay of the week: Titans -3, Ravens +2.5, Dolphins -1.5

Papa’s Football Podcast–Week 3

Just how bad are things for Robert Griffin III and the Redskins? Is Seattle the class of the NFC? Can the Jaguars sink any lower? All of the news from Week 2 of the NFL, plus a look at Week 3’s best games plus the salty language that would have made you the coolest kid on the playground.


Click here to listen to this episode of Papa’s Football Podcast or use hit the “play” button below. And click here to open us in iTunes, where you can subscribe to the podcast and never miss an episode as well as rate and comment on the show.

Papa’s Football Podcast–Week 2

Peyton Manning’s seven-touchdown game against the Ravens. Colin Kaepernick and Anquan Boldin showing the Green Bay Packers that San Francisco can win as a pocket-passing team. A summary of these and other storylines from Week 1 of the NFL, and a preview of what’s to come in Week 2. From Seahawks versus the 49ers on Sunday night to Manning Bowl III, Howard and I tell you exactly what to be on the lookout for.

Click here to listen to this episode of Papa’s Football Podcast or use hit the “play” button below. And click here to open us in iTunes, where you can subscribe to the podcast and never miss an episode as well as rate and comment on the show.

Top 5 Stories From NFL Sunday Week 1

Here are PFPod’s top 5 stories from Sunday:

5. Jacksonville was eliminated from the playoffs in Week 1. It’s hard to stick a fork in any team this early in the season, but the Jaguars’ humiliating loss to the Chiefs suggests that this team will never win another game with Gabbert at the helm. Unless the Jags’ owner wants to tank the rest of this season (and then relocate the team to LA), the only way to save Jacksonville’s NFL team is to bring in hometown hero Tim Tebow to save the day. If you’re gonna win 4 games or fewer, you should at least find a gimmick that will get your 10 loss team more air time than you should ever deserve on SportsCenter.

4. Luck barely beats Pryor in starting debut. Manning destroys defending champs. Congrats to Terrell Pryor for a performance that surprised NFL fans, sports writers, and scouts. That said, the Raiders still don’t look like a playoff bound team, and Indy fans should wonder if it was worth giving up on Peyton Manning for an unproven Andrew Luck. Luck might be good enough to win a Super Bowl eventually, but right now Manning looks ready to sing his swan song all the way to the Lombardi Trophy in February.

3. Baltimore’s loss is San Fran’s gain #Boldin. The 49ers’ aerial assault against Green Bay looks like a different beast this year: Anquan Boldin’s 208 yard week performance is already making Ravens’ fans regret the trade that sent their top receiver packing in the offseason to the defending NFC Champions. While Baltimore’s receiving corps looked lost on Thursday without Boldin and injured TE Dennis Pitta, San Fran’s new duo of Boldin and TE Vernon Davis are gonna make the 49ers other receivers look like John Taylor.

2. The Steelers have to vote someone off the island. Honestly, the Rooneys may need to kick everyone off the island once this season is through. Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley seems to have lost Big Ben already. Even if Haley gets axed next week, that won’t change the fact that Roethlisberger looked like the fourth best QB in his DIVISION on Sunday. Two rings aside, the Steelers need to take a good look at the player Big Ben is today, and then detemine whether their aging QB can bring another title soon. If the Rooneys decide to go all-in on Big Ben for the next few seasons, then Coach Tomlin might be the one searching for a new job in 2014.

1. The Saints are back. With Sean Payton at the helm again, and Rob Ryan running the defense, New Orleans took down the defending NFC South Champions this week. Atlanta looked good too, especially with the addition of Steven Jackson to their starting backfield, but the Saints started this season off with a nice warning shot to their divisional rivals: the Saints are a legit contender to take home the NFC South title this season. We’re already looking forward to their regular season rematch in the ATL.

Papa’s Football Podcast–Week 1

Because the world needs more of my high-pitched eunuch’s voice. Howard and I discuss the most compelling games and story lines from week one of the NFL. Thank God it’s back.

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