Author Archives: admin

PFPod’s NFL Contender Rankings: Week 3

With two weeks of football under our belts, PFPod.com can now debut its first Contender Rankings of 2013. Think of our Contender Rankings as the half-breed love-child of traditional “Power Rankings” and the NFL playoff format: from Best to Worst, we rank the 8 divisional leaders and our two favorite wild card teams from each conference. Our Top 12 rankings give you all the fun of a college poll AND a meaningful outlook on the NFL playoff picture! Yes, football fans, you can have your cake and eat it too. At least until you bitch about us dissing your team’s crappy division.

Top 4: Bye-week bound Divisional Leaders

1. Denver Broncos. Peyton Manning has been the best offensive player in the league so far. And we’re still waiting for him to show up in the first half of a game! Broncos fans should Thank Eli for hosting big brother in NYC last weekend–Manning Bowl III might have been Denver’s walk-through for this year’s Super Bowl at the new Giants’ Stadium.

2. Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks’ bludgeoning of the defending NFC Champs in Week 2 signals a big problem for the rest of the conference: if Seattle gains home field advantage during the playoffs, there may not be a team capable of derailing their Super Bowl aspirations.

3. Houston Texans. Houston has not looked like the team it did a year ago, but they’re 2-0, and they have a shot to take down the defending champs in Baltimore this week. Look for Ed Reed to inflict a little bit of regret on his former franchise.

4.New Orleans Saints. Last week’s razor thin margin of victory against a mediocre Tampa Bay squad shouldn’t worry Saints’ fans–bizarre lightning delays are as good an excuse as a road team can get for a less than satisfying performance. Look for N’awlins to bounce back with a better game this week.

Best of the Rest: NFL Contender Rankings 5-12

5. New England. Before the season started, the Pats had a clear path to a playoff bye. This perennial powerhouse looked hungry for redemption before the dust had even settled from their season-ending loss in the AFC Championship game. But New England’s offense had the worst off-season in NFL history: Belicheck’s innovative strategy to create coverage mismatches for his top-shelf tight ends has unexpectedly disappeared. With Gronk sidelined day-to-day, and Hernandez for 25 to life, Tom Brady has been relegated to an extended preseason with a relatively fresh receiving corps. Where’s Wes Welker when you need him, New England?

6. Chicago. The Bears have not looked convincing in their two come-from-behind wins, but they are one of only three undefeated teams remaining in the NFC. As the season progresses, however, we would not be surprised if Green Bay, Detroit, and/or Minnesota finished ahead of them in the division. BTW, it is a travesty that the NFC East will get a team into the playoffs ahead of, well, anyone in the NFC North.

7. Miami. Ryan Tannehill’s surprising KO of Andrew Luck’s hapless Colts has kept the Dolphins undefeated. It seems unlikely that the Fins’ record will stay unblemished this week, though–a date with the Falcons should diminish Miami’s hope for a playoff berth.

8. Atlanta. The best 1-1 team in the NFL has to be the Falcons. Their Week 1 loss to the Saints was nothing more than a great advertisement for the divisional rematch in November. Atlanta’s victory over the Rams was a little disconcerting, however; a game that had looked like a blowout in the making nearly slipped from the Falcons late in the fourth quarter. This Atlanta team had better figure out how to finish strong–Falcons’ fans are getting tired of watching Mike Smith’s team falling flat on its face during the playoffs.

9. Kansas City. Chiefs fans might be a little miffed that we placed their undefeated team behind the one-loss Falcons, but let’s all be real here: your win against Jacksonville does not compare to their narrow defeat at New Orleans. That said, a victory against the high-flying Eagles would do a lot to catapult KC in our view.

10. Baltimore. The defending champs have not looked good in its first two games. The defense is still trying to form its identity in its first season EVER without Ray Lewis, and the offense is hoping that Joe Flacco can adapt to life without Anquan Boldin. For now, the Raven’s best chance at a repeat begins with their crummy divisional opponents. Cincinnati has looked strong enough to win the division, but the only thing the Steelers and Browns are gonna win this year are high draft picks for 2014.

11. Green Bay. Sure, it’s hard to say that Green Bay is better than the 49ers team that beat them in Week 1. But San Francisco won’t regain Contender status until they bounce back from the beatdown they took in Seattle on Sunday night. In the meantime, the Packers have looked solid in both games. Their dominating first half against Washington may be a sign that this team has figured out their formula for balancing Aaron Rodgers’ passing attack with an effective running game.

12. Dallas. Congratulations to the Dallas Cowboys for having the least unimpressive team in football’s sh*ttiest division. Sure, the Eagles are right there with the ‘Boys in the middle-third of NFL teams; but for now, we’re gonna bank on Monte Kiffin’s defense taking Dallas into December. Philadelphia is flying high on Chip Kelly’s offense for the moment, but even he doesn’t know if any football player can keep this pace up for more than 13 games a season.

Joel’s Early Look at NFL Gambling Lines For Week 3

Joel is a longtime friend who’s previously been on Papa’s Basement a bunch, where his every appearance would wind up with him talking NFL gambling lines. So we decided a better home for him would be the Papa’s Football Podcast site, where he could do exactly that in peace. Enjoy.

It’s only a gambling problem if you’re losing.

Before I review Week 2 and dive into Week 3 lines, I suppose I should briefly introduce myself. If you’re one of the many tens of people reading this, you’re probably just like me – a recreational degenerate. Working a 9 to 5 combined with life’s obligations prevents me from spending as much time as I’d like on capping games. Not that it’s going to stop me from betting each week.

Everyone has their own betting style and beliefs. Some gamblers are spot bettors, only betting a few select games where they feel they have a huge edge. Others are volume bettors who make a lot of plays. Personally, I don’t label myself as either. Some weeks I see a lot of value on the board, others I see little to none. I tend to make more plays early in the NFL season before lines get too tight. I also selectively live bet games whenever I have a solid opportunity to profit. The bottom line is that if I see an opportunity to profit, I bet.

For the purposes of this article, I’m only going to post pregame sides and totals. I’ll keep track of my win/loss record each week. I’m not a flat bettor which means I raise/lower my bets based on my confidence. This means I can have losing weeks with a winning record or winning weeks with a losing record. Also, lines change constantly so the spread, total, or juice may be different by the time I write this. If you’re interested in my two cents throughout the week, tweet me @The_Tonian.

In terms of sides and totals, Week 2 was a very even week. Dogs went 9-7 ATS with 4 outright wins. Over/unders went 8-8 for the second consecutive week. A few teams have performed above expectations early, notably the Dolphins who have won outright on the road two weeks in a row as an underdog. On the flip side, bettors who have taken the Patriots as double digit favorites have been burned two weeks in a row. As for this week’s card, I may potentially add a play or two before Sunday but that will depend on whether the lines move and present an opportunity. Here’s my breakdown:

1. Chiefs at Eagles: I’m high on the Chiefs this year. However, coming off a short week, I’m not sure the Chiefs will be prepared physically for the breakneck speed of the Eagles offense. I normally look to bet Thursday night unders but I can’t do it against the Eagles just yet.

Pick: Eagles -3; avoid at -3.5.

2. Cardinals at Saints: You’ll have to pay extra to get -7 right now but I still like the Saints -7.5 at home. I’m low on the Cardinals already and Larry Fitzgerald may play hurt? I’m going to join the squares on this one.

Pick: Saints -7.5.

3. Giants at Panthers: I figure the mushes will be all over the Giants as a small underdog. There’s no way the Giants will start 0-3, right? RIGHT? I’m tempted to fade the public but I haven’t been impressed with the Panthers new offense. The Panthers secondary is severely banged up too. The only play I see here is the over.

Pick: Over 45.5.

4. Rams at Cowboys: There’s value in the Rams at +4 but not enough for me to fire. I think this game could be a track meet. The Rams weakness is their secondary while their strength is their passing game.

Pick: Over 47.

5. Lions at Redskins: I lean Redskins -1.5 but there’s no way I can pull the trigger here. This line may move to the other side, making it tempting to grab Lions +1.5 and seeing where the Redskins end up as a dog. No play for me on the total either.

6. Browns at Vikings: The gambling world is breathlessly waiting to find out whether Brandon Weeden will play. No play for me on the spread or total.

7. Bucs at Patriots: Lean Bucs at +7.5 or higher. If Gronkowski plays, this may go up (ditto the total). Even if he doesn’t, the mushes love the Patriots almost every week. Both offenses have been out of sync but the opening number of 46.5 is down to 44/44.5 already.

Pick: Under 46.5.

8. Texans at Ravens: The Texans are lucky to be 2-0. The Ravens are undervalued due to the last two underwhelming performances.

Pick: Ravens +2.5.

9. Chargers at Titans: The Chargers lost arguably their best receiver, Malcom Floyd, to a concussion. I’m a believer in the Titans defense.

Pick: Titans -3.

10. Packers at Bengals: Green Bay was a small underdog in look-ahead lines, now they’re a 2.5 point favorite. Lean under but I’m going to wait and see if this gets bet up. No play for now.

11. Falcons at Dolphins: I grabbed over 43 early due to the Falcons beat up defense. Steven Jackson’s out and that will make the Falcons air it out as well. I’m buying the Dolphins hot start as well.

Picks: Dolphins -1.5/2 and over 43.

12. Bills at Jets: No plays or leans on this sh*tshow matchup.

13. Colts at 49ers: No plays of leans.

14. Jaguars at Seahawks: If you’re stupid enough to bet a 20 point favorite, quit gambling. Now.

15. Bears at Steelers: This could be a 3 point spread. I’m not touching the Steelers even at +3. No plays.

16. Raiders at Broncos: How in the hell did the Raiders get a single primetime game?

3-team parlay of the week: Titans -3, Ravens +2.5, Dolphins -1.5

Papa’s Football Podcast–Week 3

Just how bad are things for Robert Griffin III and the Redskins? Is Seattle the class of the NFC? Can the Jaguars sink any lower? All of the news from Week 2 of the NFL, plus a look at Week 3’s best games plus the salty language that would have made you the coolest kid on the playground.


Click here to listen to this episode of Papa’s Football Podcast or use hit the “play” button below. And click here to open us in iTunes, where you can subscribe to the podcast and never miss an episode as well as rate and comment on the show.

Papa’s Football Podcast–Week 2

Peyton Manning’s seven-touchdown game against the Ravens. Colin Kaepernick and Anquan Boldin showing the Green Bay Packers that San Francisco can win as a pocket-passing team. A summary of these and other storylines from Week 1 of the NFL, and a preview of what’s to come in Week 2. From Seahawks versus the 49ers on Sunday night to Manning Bowl III, Howard and I tell you exactly what to be on the lookout for.

Click here to listen to this episode of Papa’s Football Podcast or use hit the “play” button below. And click here to open us in iTunes, where you can subscribe to the podcast and never miss an episode as well as rate and comment on the show.

Top 5 Stories From NFL Sunday Week 1

Here are PFPod’s top 5 stories from Sunday:

5. Jacksonville was eliminated from the playoffs in Week 1. It’s hard to stick a fork in any team this early in the season, but the Jaguars’ humiliating loss to the Chiefs suggests that this team will never win another game with Gabbert at the helm. Unless the Jags’ owner wants to tank the rest of this season (and then relocate the team to LA), the only way to save Jacksonville’s NFL team is to bring in hometown hero Tim Tebow to save the day. If you’re gonna win 4 games or fewer, you should at least find a gimmick that will get your 10 loss team more air time than you should ever deserve on SportsCenter.

4. Luck barely beats Pryor in starting debut. Manning destroys defending champs. Congrats to Terrell Pryor for a performance that surprised NFL fans, sports writers, and scouts. That said, the Raiders still don’t look like a playoff bound team, and Indy fans should wonder if it was worth giving up on Peyton Manning for an unproven Andrew Luck. Luck might be good enough to win a Super Bowl eventually, but right now Manning looks ready to sing his swan song all the way to the Lombardi Trophy in February.

3. Baltimore’s loss is San Fran’s gain #Boldin. The 49ers’ aerial assault against Green Bay looks like a different beast this year: Anquan Boldin’s 208 yard week performance is already making Ravens’ fans regret the trade that sent their top receiver packing in the offseason to the defending NFC Champions. While Baltimore’s receiving corps looked lost on Thursday without Boldin and injured TE Dennis Pitta, San Fran’s new duo of Boldin and TE Vernon Davis are gonna make the 49ers other receivers look like John Taylor.

2. The Steelers have to vote someone off the island. Honestly, the Rooneys may need to kick everyone off the island once this season is through. Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley seems to have lost Big Ben already. Even if Haley gets axed next week, that won’t change the fact that Roethlisberger looked like the fourth best QB in his DIVISION on Sunday. Two rings aside, the Steelers need to take a good look at the player Big Ben is today, and then detemine whether their aging QB can bring another title soon. If the Rooneys decide to go all-in on Big Ben for the next few seasons, then Coach Tomlin might be the one searching for a new job in 2014.

1. The Saints are back. With Sean Payton at the helm again, and Rob Ryan running the defense, New Orleans took down the defending NFC South Champions this week. Atlanta looked good too, especially with the addition of Steven Jackson to their starting backfield, but the Saints started this season off with a nice warning shot to their divisional rivals: the Saints are a legit contender to take home the NFC South title this season. We’re already looking forward to their regular season rematch in the ATL.

Papa’s Football Podcast–Week 1

Because the world needs more of my high-pitched eunuch’s voice. Howard and I discuss the most compelling games and story lines from week one of the NFL. Thank God it’s back.

Click here to listen to this episode of Papa’s Football Podcast or use hit the “play” button below. And click here to open us in iTunes, where you can subscribe to the podcast and never miss an episode as well as rate and comment on the show.