Joel’s Early Look at NFL Lines–Week 5

Early Look at NFL Week 5 Lines and Week 4 Recap

If you’re interested in my two cents throughout the week, tweet me @The_Tonian.

I often look to bet the under on Thursday Night Football. The 49ers-Rams game last week was a boring, sloppy game as many Thursday Night Football games are. Entering the 4th quarter, the 49ers led 21-3. The Rams offense was struggling to move the football and the 49ers were in clock killing mode. With 11:44 left in the game, I started to mentally chalk up my Under 43 bet as a win. Then the following happened:

• Rams fumble; 49ers drive 3 yards for a TD. 10:15 left in the game.
• 49ers fumble; Rams drive 24 yards for a TD (and 2 point conversion). 5:44 left in the game.
• Rams fail onside kick; 49ers drive 42 yards for a TD. Final score is 35-11. I looked something like this…

Unless a bet has already covered or the game is over, it’s never a good idea to mentally count money until you get to the window. Bad beats and unpredictable things happen all the time. While my bet did not win, I can take a little solace in that I made a good bet and got unlucky. The goal is to consistently take good numbers and good sides. There will be lucky breaks as well as bad ones throughout the season.

It’s a little difficult for me to select plays for Week 5. Each week I review the look-ahead lines for games the following week. I’ll sometimes find value in a few spots and fire, hoping to get a better number than what it will be after Sunday. In an unusual circumstance, I loved the Week 5 look-ahead lines and made 12 plays already. The numbers I got are mostly much different than what is currently posted (or where they opened). Anyways, here’s my breakdown. As always, these numbers may already be gone and are subject to move before/after posting.

1. Bills at Browns: No reason to back EJ Manuel on the road, especially with Spiller and Jackson playing hurt. The Browns defense is underrated and Joe Haden will shut down Stevie Johnson. Picks: Browns -4 and Under 41
2. Patriots at Bengals: Losing Vince Wilfork for the season will have an enormous impact on the Patriots defense, particularly against the run. I expect the Bengals to be able to move the ball on the ground much better than they did against the Browns. AJ Green will bounce back after being shut down by Joe Haden. Pick: Bengals -1
3. Lions at Packers: Packers are coming off a bye week and historically perform well ATS at home versus the Lions. However, I’m hesitant to lay 7 points against a Lions offense that can score with the Packers. Love teasing the Packers down to -0.5, though. No plays.
4. Seahawks at Colts: That sound you heard at around 4:30 pm EST last Sunday was everyone holding a Texans +2.5 ticket (or lower) screaming and ripping their tickets. The Seahawks haven’t been dominant on the road but they’ve covered six in a row. Pick: Seahawks -2.5
5. Ravens at Dolphins: If this hits 3.5, I’ll take the Ravens at +3.5. Not sure that’s going to happen though. No plays.
6. Saints at Bears: “The Saints are a pick’em? FREE MONEY!” –what every mush will be thinking. Pick: Bears pk
7. Eagles at Giants: It’s a battle of dumpster fires! Backing the Giants last week was my worst play last week. But I do believe they’re going to rally around Coughlin and take care of business at home. Pick: Giants -2/2.5 (have -2.5)
9. Jaguars at Rams: I can’t buy into the idea that the Rams are more than 10 points better than even the lowly Jaguars. Pick: Jaguars +11.5
10. Panthers at Cardinals: Don’t trust the Panthers on the road. Barely trust the Cardinals anywhere. Lean Cardinals but passing for now. No plays.
11. Broncos at Cowboys: One book has it at 8.5; most show 7 or a juiced 7.5. This line is inflated as hell. I got a look-ahead line of Broncos -3. While I’m tempted to take +7.5 or higher, I’m going to pass. I recommend staying away from this one. No plays.
12. Texans at 49ers: Another inflated line. I took an unfortunate look-ahead line of +4.5 and it’s sitting at +6.5 right now. I’d still take this number and really like it at 7. Pick: Texans +6.5
13. Chargers at Raiders: Who wants to watch this game beginning at 10:30 pm EST? Anyone? I can see how it’s tempting to back the home dog here but the Raiders are still garbage. Getting Pryor back helps of course but I’m passing. No plays.
14. Jets at Falcons: This opened at 7.5 and has been bet up to 10. I’m sure there’s something better to do with your life on Monday night than watch this poo-flinging fest. Pick: Under 43.5

3-team parlay of the week: Browns -4, Bengals -1, Bears pk (Season Record: 1-1)

Week 4 Sides: 3-2; Week 4 Totals: 2-2
Season Sides: 6-3-1; Season Totals: 4-4
Combined Overall Record: 10-7-1

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